As the official 2015 general election campaign gets underway, all of the polls and indicators point not just to a hung parliament, but to a precariously balanced and dangerously weak government ultimately stumbling from the wreckage.
From today’s Telegraph:
If there is no majority government, then the opposition parties could vote against the government in a no-confidence motion. However the new Fixed-Term Parliaments Act would then trigger a fresh general election if no government can be formed within two weeks. It’s hard to predict how the fresh result would be different. The Conservatives might benefit if people felt that Labour and the SNP had been obstructive, but it would be an uncertain and speculative venture for all parties.
The last option is for a minority government. A party grouping with fewer than 326 seats could win a no-confidence motion helped by some opposition abstentions. This avoids the compulsory new election. But the minority government would have to build a fresh coalition for every Commons vote. And without a “confidence and supply” agreement, there is no guarantee that even the budget would be passed. In short, life would be much more difficult for a minority government.
This meltdown scenario is unlikely, but it has a real chance of happening. Perhaps it would be the natural end for a campaign without a clear winner.
This could truly be the nightmare scenario for Britain: the election results may leave both Labour and the Tories feeling bruised, the LibDems nearly wiped out and not in a position to give either party a majority in coalition, UKIP and the Greens furious that their substantial national support failed to translate into many Westminster seats, and the SNP strutting around in triumph as Scotland effectively becomes a one-party nation.


