South Carolina

Sanford Wins

Samuel HooperLeave a comment

Well, I was wrong.

Based on pre-election polling data, and an excess of trust in the wisdom of the electorate, I predicted that the Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch would defeat the Republican former governor Mark Sanford in South Carolina’s 1st congressional district election.

Politico reports:

In the end, the nail biter that late polls hinted at never materialized: Sanford crushed Colbert Busch, 54 to 45 percent.

A turning point in the race came two weeks ago, when Sanford held a mock debate with a cardboard cut-out of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, implying that the California Democrat — persona non grata in conservative South Carolina – was a stand-in for his Democratic opponent.

The former governor endured days of derision from the press for the move — Mark Sanford, once regarded as a viable potential presidential candidate, was debating a piece of cardboard.

But behind the scenes, Sanford’s aides grinned: Every time a reporter put “Pelosi” and “Colbert Busch” in the same sentence, the Republican was winning.

From reading this article it is clear that Sanford ran a far superior campaign to Busch. Tightly-controlled campaigns such as Colbert Busch’s, with handlers keeping the candidate away from any potentially awkward encounter with a real person, are almost never the best way to win, let alone the right way to behave, and yet that is precisely the model that Colbert Busch chose to follow.

Sanford, by contrast, ran an old-fashioned retail politician campaign, barnstorming the district, accepting every invitation for interview or appearance, and offering no end of mea culpas whenever he was asked about his chequered past.

The article continues:

This time, Sanford was, in a sense, running from scratch once again. Without the trappings of the governorship, he hop-scotched the Lowcountry in a black van driven by an aide. After spending a year in obscurity, he was reintroducing himself to voters — soothing the concerns of voters who still felt squeamish about what he had done.

In a district rich with evangelical voters, he adopted religious language to describe his personal journey, talking about a “God of second chances.”

“His strength of his campaign style is that he’s out there every day,” said Scott English, who served as Sanford’s gubernatorial chief of staff. “He loves being around people, and that’s the hallmark of his campaign.”

He ran a smart campaign because he knew how to run a smart campaign. Because he has been doing this since the age of 34. Because he is a career politician.

In South Carolina, the better candidate – but the worse representative – prevailed.